Emil Julius Gumbel


Quick Info

Born
18 July 1891
Munich, Germany
Died
10 September 1966
New York City, New York, USA

Summary
Emil Gumbel was an expert in mathematical statistics and also a dedicated pacifist who risked his life trying to warn Germans of the Nazi threat. He was dismissed from Heidelberg University, his life was threaten on several occasions, but he survived to write important work including Statistics of Extremes.

Biography

Emil Gumbel was the eldest child of Hermann Gumbel (1857-1916), a banker in Munich, and Flora Gumbel (1869-1916). Hermann and Flora were both Jewish and from small towns in Baden, Stein am Kocher and Bruchsal respectively; they were distant cousins. Hermann's family owned the Gebrüder Gumbel bank in Heilbronn and, in 1887, Hermann moved to Munich to open a branch of Gebrüder Gumbel in the city centre. He married Flora in 1889 and their first child Emil Julius Gumbel, the subject of this biography, was born in 1891. Emil had two younger siblings, Paul Robert Gumbel (1894-1915) and Helene Gumbel (1902-1992). In 1902 Hermann Gumbel sold his Munich bank and lived off his investments until his death in 1916.

Emil Gumbel attended the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Gymnasium in Munich. This school, considered the best in Munich, was where all the sons of the important people of Munich were sent. There were Catholics, Protestants and Jewish boys at the school and they were taught together except for religious studies when they were instructed in their own faith. Although the Gumbel family were Jewish, they did not follow any Jewish customs or traditions. Emil's interest in mathematics began at the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Gymnasium where he was taught by the mathematics teacher Wilhelm Winter. The school, however, only provided a strict learning by rote education with emphasis on Latin and Greek. There was no attempt to encourage students to use their imagination and very little effort was put into letting the brightest students achieve more than average.

It was during his school years that Emil Gumbel became interested in liberal social issues. This came about through his uncle Abraham Gumbel (1852-1930) [5]:-
... who headed Gebrüder Gumbel and other family enterprises in Heilbronn from 1889 until his death, frequently visited his relatives in Munich. There he talked at length with his nephew about political and social issues and related to Emil the family's liberal tradition ... Indeed, upon his death in 1930, a Heilbronn newspaper wrote of Abraham Gumbel that he had stood "intellectually at the furthest wing of leftist-oriented beliefs." Abraham's radical political ideas "were the red flag" for his brother Hermann, but they provided a pole to which young Emil, who did not get along with his father, could gravitate.
Emil Gumbel graduated from the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Gymnasium in Munich in 1910 and, later that year, began his studies at the University of Munich. He studied a range of different topics in mathematics, economics and social sciences. He took courses on mathematics delivered by Alfred Pringsheim and by Ferdinand von Lindemann, courses on economics given by Lujo Brentano (1844-1931), and a course on law given by Karl Gareis (1844-1923). He was influenced by Georg von Mayr (1841-1925) who had been an extraordinary professor in statistics at the University of Munich from 1868 and directed the Statistical Bureau from 1869 to 1879. He had left Munich and began a political career in 1879 but returned to the University of Munich in 1898 to the Chair of Political Economy, Financial Sciences and Statistics. Gumbel seemed to move towards insurance, passing an examination in that subject in February 1913. He spent the following semester as an assistant in statistics and actuarial science, then spent the summer working for an insurance company in London. Back at the University of Munich, he undertook research for his doctorate advised by Georg von Mayr and by the extraordinary professor of insurance mathematics Friedrich Böhm (1885-1965). He was awarded his doctorate on 24 July 1914 for his thesis Über die Interpolation des Bevölkerungsstandes .

You can see details of Gumbel's thesis by reading the review of his paper Berechnung des Bevölkerungsstandes durch Interpolation (1916) at THIS LINK.

On 4 August 1914, only a few days after Gumbel was awarded his doctorate, Britain declared war on Germany and World War I began. On 16 August 1914 Gumbel volunteered for military service. He wrote, many years later, [44]:-
I was still young enough in 1914 to be confused by all the patriotic talk I heard around me [and felt] not quite certain about the real issues of the war.
Emil Gumbel's first cousin, the son of Abraham Gumbel, died in battle in August 1914 and this had a strong influence [5]:-
Emil's relationship with his uncle may be counted among the factors that led Emil to his anti-war stance, since he undoubtedly shared Abraham's anguish over the death of his son (Emil's first cousin) in the first days of the Great War. This loss drove Abraham into outspoken opposition to the war and the Hohenzollern dynasty, which he blamed for the senseless conflict. Thereafter Abraham became a leading amateur investigator of the origins of the war; contemporaries regarded him as one of the two Germans most knowledgeable on the subject. Emil grew to admire and emulate his uncle's refusal to be influenced, as Emil put it, by "the prevailing opinion, that is, the opinion of the rulers," and by "the cry of the street." Emil loved and respected his model like no other: "He remained a voice in the wilderness .. He loved truth; he was upstanding and free."
Gumbel's military service only lasted for a short while. He was keen on skiing when he was growing up so, as a very competent skier, after his initial training with the First Bavarian Field Artillery Regiment in Munich, he was sent to join the First Bavarian Ski Battalion. After six weeks he was released with a serious respiratory infection and by the end of January 1915 he had been discharged as unfit for service and given one year medical leave. The death of his cousin had increased his pacifist beliefs and these were much reinforced in June 1915 when his younger brother Paul Robert Gumbel was killed at the western front. Gumbel moved to Berlin where he studied with the statistician Ladislaus Bortkiewicz. He now also played a role in pacifist organisations joining the Independent Socialist Party, which opposed the war, in November 1915. He also joined the Deutsche Liga fur Menschenrechte, a small pacifist group aimed at ending the war.

Gumbel had been given a year of medical leave from his military service but after this year he was able to undertake civilian military service, first at the Adlershof aeronautics complex then later he worked at the electronics firm Telefunken researching sound transmitter waves. There were dramatic changes in Germany in 1918 with a revolution which quickly led to the country being declared a republic on 9 November 1918. After that, Gumbel spent his time partly as a political activist and partly pursuing an academic career as a statistician. He took some advanced courses at the University of Berlin, including one by Albert Einstein, and undertook research on mathematical statistics in close contact with Ladislaus Bortkiewicz. He was prominent as a political activist and became a target for right-wing activists [43]:-
Gumbel paid dearly for his outspoken and uncompromising pacifism. Only his absence spared his life when a squad of right-wing, paramilitary soldiers arrived at his Berlin apartment one day in March 1919. He was bloodied by nationalist thugs a year later in Berlin as he presided at a pacifist rally at which his comrade Hellmuth von Gerlach was beaten senseless; Gumbel gave the subsequent lectures in Gerlach's stead.
His political publications were independent of his work as a statistician and he published collected data to make political statements. In June 1921 he published the pamphlet "Two Years of Murder" [19]:-
Carefully researched, this book contains a collection of documents and reports on the political murders committed in Germany since January 1919. Gumbel's sources included court records, verdicts, decisions regarding the dismissal of cases, witness statements, communications from lawyers, relatives of the bereaved, and newspaper articles. ... Gumbel compiled tables comparing the murders committed by the political left with those committed by the right, as well as the ratio of the sentences to each other. His result: 22 murders committed by the left were punished with an average of 15 years in prison, whereas 332 murders committed by the right were punished with an average of only four months.
In 1922 he published the fifth edition of his pamphlet, now with the updated title "Four Years of Political Murder". Although in the earlier pamphlet he had let the data speak for itself, in the 1922 version he added a commentary which heavily criticises the judicial failures of the Weimar Republic. In November 1922 Gumbel published Deutschland von Heute, die Demokratie ohne Demokraten in which he claimed [12]:-
... because the Weimar coalition was so intent on preventing a Bolshevik-style revolution in Germany, it nurtured anti-republican forces whose ultimate goal was to put an end to the republic. Despite being presented with clear evidence of this danger, Gumbel lamented that, "seldom do people allow themselves to be genuinely persuaded by the facts."
You can read more about these publications in the review by Gabriele Jäger and Stefan Trudewind at THIS LINK.

Gumbel very much agreed with the pacifist views of Bertrand Russell and he translated parts of Russell's Political Ideals into German and published them in 1920 with a foreword by Albert Einstein.

Gumbel also published articles on mathematical statistics, for example the following articles published between 1915 and 1923 were all written in German: Attempts at a mathematical law of population increase (1915); On the interpolation of the population level (1916); The calculation of the repopulation level by interpolation (1916); A representation of statistical series by Euler (1917); On the analysis of the death order (1921); Probabilistic considerations of the radiation law (1922); On the analytical representation of two-peaked distribution curves (1923); and On the correlation occurring in functions of variables (1923).

In 1922 Gumbel was one of the founders of the League for Human Rights in Berlin which:-
... followed the example of the French League for Human Rights, fights for pacifism, democracy, and socialism, and specifically advocates for persecuted left-wing radical journalists.
In 1923 he habilitated at the Ruprecht-Karl University of Heidelberg. He delivered his public inaugural lecture, Meaning and Limits of Statistical Laws, on Saturday, 20 January 1923, at 12 noon in Lecture Hall 13 in the University Main Building. He moved into the semi-detached house at Beethovenstrasse 39 in the Handschuhsheim district of Heidelberg in the summer of 1923.

Gumbel fully carried out his duties in teaching mathematical statistics at Heidelberg but between semesters, returned to his apartment in Berlin to undertake political work. His political stance, however, soon led to him being criticised. On 26 July 1924 he headed the annual "No-More-War" rally in Heidelberg. He gave the closing address, asking the audience to reject all war without reservation. He asked the audience for two minutes silence:-
... to honour the war dead who I will not say, fell on a field of dishonour, but who nevertheless died a horrible death.
The moderate press reported that the audience were deeply moved, while the right-wing press wrote that Gumbel had insulted the war dead and their surviving families. Those opposed to Gumbel's views said he was undermining the reputation of Heidelberg University and the Weimar government [12]:-
After a lengthy University disciplinary hearing, Gumbel's colleagues and the Baden Minister of Culture and Education concluded that Gumbel had not intended to insult the German war dead and that his words had not violated the obligations according to the requirements of his position as a university professor. Thus, they chose not to expel Gumbel from the Heidelberg faculty. But they were sufficiently uneasy about his rhetoric that they took the unusual step of distributing to all German universities and newspapers a document criticising Gumbel's "basic lack of tact," and his alleged inability to "identify with the interests of the university."
In the mid 1920s, he met Marie Luise (1892-1952), the daughter of General Staff Prussian officer Hermann von Czettriz and Maria von Bastineller. Influenced by her mother, Marie Luise had joined the pacifist movement and became Gumbel's secretary at the League for Human Rights. She had married the Prussian officer Solscher but she had divorced him, at least partly, because of her strong pacifist beliefs. She, with her younger son Harald Solscher born in Hamburg in 1921, moved to Heidelberg in 1926. Gumbel married Marie Luise in Berlin in April 1930 and Gumbel adopted Harald whose name became Harald Gumbel. Marie Luise had an older son Jürgen Solscher who continued to live with his father in Hamburg.

Gumbel made strenuous efforts to warn German people about the Nazis aim for war for at least five years before they came to power [12]:-
In the absence of effective coalition efforts to undermine Nazism, Gumbel increased his own efforts to awaken the German public to the threat that Nazi war propaganda embodied. In November 1928, he spoke and wrote about "the coming war," which he characterised as the logical consequence of Nazi political activity. Over the next five years, the economist, the statistician, and the pacifist in Gumbel's work converged. Desperate to make people aware of the effects of modern warfare, Gumbel strengthened his efforts to discredit the symbols glorifying war and military heroism and to make clear war's destructive reality. In speeches and newspaper articles, he portrayed the German people as unwitting victims of an insensitive military state and repeated his belief that genuine heroism and patriotism lay in efforts to prevent future catastrophic wars.
Later in life Gumbel described his life in Heidelberg [9]:-
Our house had a small garden where I worked on Sundays. I planted berry bushes, one or two apple trees, flowers, tomatoes, and potatoes. They were always the most expensive tomatoes and potatoes in the world, but I enjoyed growing them. ... Behind the house was a small veranda, built on the same level as the kitchen, and we used to eat there. ... In the afternoons, I took the bus to the university; the bus stop was just five minutes away ... . We often went to political or academic events, a concert or a meeting, and occasionally to the cinema. The group we joined was sharply separated from the other groups at the university ... and the supporters of both factions never spoke to each other or greeted each other on the street.
Harald Gumbel also spoke of the Heidelberg years [9]:-
On the one hand I had picnics with friends and skiing holidays in the Alps but, on the other hand, we suffered terror attacks by right-wing students against our house on Beethovenstrasse, and I was attacked by the Hitler Youth on a tram.
In August 1930 Gumbel was promoted to associate professor in Heidelberg. Many of the Heidelberg students were Nazi supporters and there was large protests and again demands that he be dismissed. Gumbel, however, still had supporters and on 9 February 1931 a letter of support for him was signed by 81 professors from German universities. On 27 April 1931 there was a rally in Berlin supporting Gumbel. On 31 July 1932 the federal election saw the Nazi party become the largest in the Reichstag and the political climate changed. Few were now publicly prepared to support Gumbel and he was dismissed from Heidelberg University in August 1932. He later remarked:-
The men who dismissed me saved my life.
This was almost certainly true for, had he been in Germany when the Nazis came to power in January 1933, he would have been eliminated. In fact by that time he was in Paris for in July 1932 Emile Borel had written to him inviting him to give a course of lectures at the Institut Henri Poincaré during the first semester of 1932-33. In August 1933 Gumbel was on the first list of Germans stripped of their citizenship by the Nazis. In 1934 Gumbel, his wife and adopted son moved to Lyon where he was appointed to the university. In 1937 he published the book La durée extréme de la vie humaine and in 1938 he was the editor of Freie Wissenschaft. Ein Sammelbuch aus der deutschen Emigration 1938 to which he contributed the paper "Aryan Natural Science." You can read reviews of these books at THIS LINK.

The Gumbel family became French citizens in 1939 and would have happily spent the rest of their lives in France but it was not to be. In May 1940 German troops invaded France and the Gumbel family were forced to flee Lyon and went first to Marseille. The three Gumbels eventually managed to reach New York, each by their own escape route. Gumbel made his escape through Spain and Portugal. It was made possible through the assistance of the Emergency Committee in Aid of Displaced German Scholars, the New School for Social Research in New York, and especially Varian Mackey Fry (1907-1967), an American journalist who ran a rescue network in Vichy France from August 1940 to September 1941 that helped 2,000 anti-Nazi and Jewish refugees, mostly artists and intellectuals, escape from persecution by Nazi Germany.

You can read Gumbel's own account of his escape to the United States at THIS LINK.

It was 1941 before the Gumbel family were reunited in New York. He taught for four years at the New School for Social Research, then taught at different New York colleges. He received research contracts from the National Bureau of Standards and published many papers including The return period of flood flows (1941), On the frequency distribution of extreme values in meteorological data (1942), Simple tests for given hypotheses (1942), On the reliability of the classical chi-square test (1943), On serial numbers (1943) Ranges and midranges (1944), and Simplified plotting of statistical observations (1945).

After a long battle with cancer, Marie Luise died in New York in 1952. In 1953 he was appointed to Columbia University were he remained for the rest of his career. He continued to publish a series of papers, several on extreme values. His two most important publications after joining Columbia University were the books Statistical Theory of Extreme Values and Some Practical Applications (1954) and Statistics of Extremes (1958). You can see details of these important works at THIS LINK.

He was able to return to Germany and give lectures in the 1950s and 1960s. He taught at the Free University of Berlin in the summer semesters of 1954, 1955 and 1956. In 1964 and 1965 he was a visiting professor at the Mathematical Institute of the University of Hamburg but he was not welcome to lecture at Heidelberg University. He died of cancer in 1966 at the age of 75, but little attention was given to this in the press of either of the East or West Germany. This, however, has changed dramatically in the last five years.

On 26 April 2019 the exhibition "Emil Julius Gumbel (1891-1966): Statistician, Pacifist, Publicist - In the Fight against Extremes and for the Weimar Republic" opened at the Technical University of Munich. The exhibition then went to Heidelberg University Museum (July 2019 - October 2019), the Foyer of the MATHEMATIKON, Heidelberg (November 2019 - January 2020), Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg (November 2023 - March 2024), University of Hamburg (May 2024 - July 2024), University of Konstanz (January 2025 - February 2025), Humboldt-Universität Berlin (March 2025 - May 2025), Technical University of Munich, ... The publicity for the exhibition gives details of Gumbel's life and ends as follows [46]:-
His scientific legacy, the book "Statistics of Extremes" (1958) is still standard today, every statistician knows the Gumbel distribution and the Gumbel copula and no hydraulic engineering project (such as dams or dykes) is realised without his formulas, which have also become common tools in many other areas (e.g. the calculations of breaking strengths of materials, lifetime distributions in insurance, financial losses in banking). Gumbel's political achievements, on the other hand, were largely forgotten ...

When Gumbel died in 1966, the transatlantic professional world mourned the loss of an excellent colleague. In Germany, on the other hand, he was almost forgotten, a man of whom one could have been proud because he had remained upright when others were writhing under the Nazi ideology.
In July 2019 the conference "Emil Julius Gumbel: Mathematician, Publicist, Pacifist" was held at the University of Heidelberg. A film "The Prediction of Extreme Events: The Story of E J Gumbel" was made and has been shown at ETH Zurich, the Technical University of Munich, Heidelberg University and Columbia University as well as at several film festivals. The director of the film writes [45]:-
In the face of the extremes of Nazism, we are usually concerned with the perpetrators and the victims, less with the roots of the violence and how it changed society. And we tend to forget the voices of those who tried to prevent the violence.

E J Gumbel was one of the best known and most hated enemies of the Nazis in his time. His notoriety was such that his name itself became a dirty word. The Nazis hated Gumbel because he uncompromisingly showed how the first German democracy sacrificed its ideals and the means by which the fascists came to power.


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Written by J J O'Connor and E F Robertson
Last Update September 2025