How likely is that? by John Haigh

John Haigh is an expert on probability who has written a popular book on the subject Taking chances: winning with probability and has given one of a series of popular lectures for the London Mathematical Society. Jointly with fellow sports lover Rob Eastaway he has also written Beating the Odds; the hidden mathematics of sport.
He sums up his lecture entitled "How likely is that" as follows. "Answers to questions about probability are often surprising and may even seem paradoxical. But a logical approach shows why these answers arise".